LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 44.6 F / 7 C Wind Chill 41 F / 6 C Dew Point 44.6 F / 7 C Humidity 100% Wind Speed 5.8 Wind Direction WNW 290 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions overcast at 900 feet Current Weather Light Rain Barometer 30.07 Inches Issued At 05/24/2025 06:56 $$ |
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FXUS61 KPBZ 240709 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 309 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Progressively drier and warmer conditions are forecast through Memorial Day. Rain chances increase Tuesday with more seasonable temperatures favored for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Temperatures remain seasonably cool with shower potential lingering in northwest PA for the daytime. - Some frost potential overnight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Between satellite observations and the 00Z sounding, a generally thick low cloud deck continues around and northeast of Pittsburgh, favored to linger for much of the day today with moisture influence downstream of Lake Erie. Shallow instability will maintain a chance of showers northwest of Pittsburgh today, but elsewhere, limited moisture depth makes shower formation a bit more challenging. As the region continues to feel the influence of the 500mb low over Maine, northwest low level flow will maintain a roughly -8C to -10C 850mb cold anomaly. This will continue to keep daytime highs around 10 to 15 degrees below average. By nightfall, loss of daytime heating and a slight lessening of the low flow in response to a northeastward meander of the low should result in decreased cloud cover overnight tomorrow night (save perhaps the I-80 corridor). With radiative cooling, this may lend to patchy valley fog. In areas where clearing is forecast, chances of <40F, <36F, and <32F are 50% to 80%, 20% to 40%, and 0% to 20%, respectively. This may warrant continued watching for frost formation given calm winds and dew points near forecast lows. This will remain highlighted in the HWO. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Slightly warmer Sunday with a schc of showers for some. - Dry and pleasant for Memorial Day. ---------------------------------------------------------------- A quick period of flat ridging is expected Sunday with confidence increasing in a weak shortwave passage. Timing agreement of the passage has increased some, with mose CAMs having th passage during the day, increasing precipitation chances with the constructive interference with heating. That being said, even with shower development, coverage is expected to be limited with slight uncertainties in shortwave amplitude. At the worst, shower coverage could be scattered, at the best, showers could still not happen at all. This has justified the schc showers generally north and east of Pittsburgh. Cloud coverage and continued cool 850mb air will keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal, still. After another cool night with clouds clearing, Memorial Day appears pleasant and dry, with highs rebounding into the 70s for most and the only afternoon chances or rain confined to the mountains of West Virginia with orographics, though still only 20%. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - High confidence in rain by mid-week, low confidence exactly when. - More seasonable temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Clustered variance increases into Tuesday and Wednesday, though agreement is better than a mere 24 hours ago. All four LREF clusters nor have either a trough or closed low developing across the upper Midwest by Tuesday, with surface cyclogenesis favored on Tuesday in the upper Ohio Valley, this will bring Gulf moisture north, allowing for rain chances to increase into late Tuesday. Two of the four clusters have a 40% to 50% chance of >1" of rain over portions of the area, but this relies on a more regressive, stronger trough/low. Otherwise, should the trough/low be to weak or progressive, rain may be less intense or to the east, respectively. Ensembles are in more agreement on a troughing solution by late week, as the aforementioned wave crosses through. The range of possible temperatures has decreased at the expense of some high end solutions for Wednesday to Saturday. The primary uncertainty will be trough speed, with a secondary emphasis on amplitude. More progressive solutions could mean cooler and drier by late next week, with less progressive relating to the potential for warmer and wetter weather. A stronger trough may mean cooler, while a weaker tough may mean warmer. The most likely temperature range for this period will be in 60s to 70s for daytime highs. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure over Maine and the Canadian Maritimes will gradually move east over the next 24 hours with northwest flow continuing over the Upper Ohio River Valley. Surface high over the Great Lakes and surface ridging are expected to gradually build over the period as drier air continues to work into the area. Skies are clear over southern areas and river valley fog has formed over the Ohio and adjacent tributaries south of Wheeling but is not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. VFR to MVFR ceilings are impacting the PIT and AGC airport on north early this morning with showers and spotty IFR conditions at FKL and DUJ. While these showers may continue today in the far north they will be spotty during the day and ceilings should rise to VFR eventually in that area. With clearing skies and light winds under high pressure Saturday night, expect river valley fog over much of the area but impacts to TAF sites are expected to be minimal. A weak trough of low pressure dropping southeast across the area Sunday will have limited moisture but can't rule out showers but ceilings likely to be VFR and most of the precipitation should stay south of the TAF sites with possible exception of MGW Sunday afternoon and evening. Outlook... Monday through Tuesday will likely remain free of ceiling or visibility restrictions. Low pressure tracking up the Ohio Valley eventually brings rain chances and restrictions back to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Milcarek NEAR TERM...Milcarek SHORT TERM...Milcarek LONG TERM...Milcarek AVIATION...Craven |