LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 64.4 F / 18 C Dew Point 64.4 F / 18 C Humidity 100% Wind Speed 4.6 Wind Direction ESE 100 Degrees Visibility 3 Miles Sky Conditions overcast at 200 feet Current Weather Light Rain Mist Barometer 30.04 Inches Issued At 06/14/2025 08:21 $$ |
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A Areal Flood Watch has been issued for Venango county until 4:00 PM.
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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 141133
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
733 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Near-normal temperatures continue through early next week with
periodic shower and storm chances. Localized flooding will be
possible. Daytime highs return to above normal by the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower and storm coverage increases this afternoon with a
continued marginal risk of flash flooding.
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1.7"(00Z sounding) of precipitable water (well above 90th
percentile) along with deep (>12kft) warm cloud depth values,
and relatively slow storm movement will bring another day with a
Marginal Risk for excessive rain. While latest surface analysis
shows the boundary close to the Mason- Dixon line, low-level
flow is weak, and the convergence driving lift and convection is
farther north. CAM probabilities continue to show higher
amounts north of Pittsburgh today and after collaboration with
surrounding offices, have issued a Flood Watch for several
counties along the I-80 corridor.
Chances decrease overnight with the loss of surface heating,
but a crossing shortwave may allow additional shower and low-
probability storm chances through the late-night and early
morning hours. Low level moisture and cloud cover will keep
lows 5 to 10 degrees above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued storm chances with flash flooding potential continue
Sunday.
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Sunday, a mid-level disturbance and corresponding surface low
will approach the upper Ohio Valley, along for a continued
saturated environment (with PWATS near the 90th percentile),
warm rain processes, and mostly-diurnal storm chances in weak
flow. This will maintain marginal flash flooding threats with
chances peaking in the afternoons with diurnal heating and
subsiding overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain and flooding chances linger through early next week,
before a mid-week warmup.
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Early next week there is some indication of a return to quasi-
zonal flow to even weak ridging, with 80% membership in
clustering suggesting heights between 583dm and 586dm and NBM
highs back into the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light to moderate rain showers and IFR/LIFR restrictions are
ongoing for areas north of I-70 this morning, while farther
south there is no rain and a mix of MVFR/VFR to start the TAF
period. This trend continues through at least mid morning, after
which ceilings should see some minor improvement to MVFR across
much of the area except FKL/DUJ where IFR will linger awhile
longer as a steady band of rain drifting generally west to east
takes its time exiting the area.
Breaks of sun (especially around and south of PIT) during late
morning and afternoon will facilitate deeper mixing. Given the
lack of a thermal capping inversion, even modest heating should
be sufficient to invigorate more robust updrafts by early
afternoon, with tstms possible for a few hours south of I-80.
Although prevailing conditions will favor MVFR during this time,
drastic drops in vsby are possible (30-40% probability) within
the very heavy rain of afternoon storms, as are occasional
breaks to VFR in between bursts of rain/storms.
Deep convection tapers towards sunset with the loss of daytime
heating, though scattered light showers linger through tonight
as cigs/vsbys drop back down to IFR or worse after 03-06z.
Outlook...
Restriction potential with rain will continue into early next
week with little change in pattern as a series of disturbances
crosses the area.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ008-009-015-
016.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...Milcarek/88
AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley
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