LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 53.6 F / 12 C Dew Point 50 F / 10 C Humidity 88% Wind Speed 10.4 Gust to 18.4 Wind Direction WSW 240 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions scattered at 1100 feet broken at 1600 feet overcast at 4900 feet Current Weather Barometer 29.61 Inches Issued At 11/07/2025 21:32 $$ |
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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 080017 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 717 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Generally dry weather is expected through the daylight hours Saturday before rain returns Sunday with low pressure. Rain will mix with and change to snow Sunday night, with snow showers and much colder temperatures Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain will taper off through midnight. - Patchy fog possible mainly west of I-79. --------------------------------------------------------------- Rain ahead of a 700mb shortwave trough will continue to shift south and east of the region tonight as brief subsidence plus dry advection works in from the west. At the surface, residual boundary layer mixing and warm advection in SW flow is expected to limit diurnal cooling through the early portion of the overnight period. Passage of the upper trough axis early Saturday morning should push the weak cold front through the region, creating overnight lows (that are still a few degrees above average) just prior to sunrise. Heights aloft are expected to quickly rise Saturday in response to developing low pressure over the northern Mississippi River Valley. This shift will stall the early morning cold front before lifting it N/E during the afternoon as a warm front and stalling itself around NW PA. Low probabilities exist for a light rain shower ahead of that warm front (favoring Lake Erie- adjacent locations), but dry weather is likely for the rest of the region. Warm advection behind the front should equate to above normal high temperature, but there may be a sharp gradient near to just north of Pittsburgh where this warming stops (due to combination of limited warm advection duration plus cloud coverage) and temperature is closer to the seasonal average. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain chances increase Saturday night into Sunday - Colder with rain mixing with/changing to snow Sunday night ---------------------------------------------------------------- A deepening upper trough is progged to dig across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday. At the SFC, a deepening low pressure system will track from IL/IN eastward across the OH Valley by mid Sunday morning. Rain chances begin to increase closest to the lakes first, near the advancing warm front Saturday night. Rain chances then ramp up across much of the area Sunday morning as the Low traverses the eastern Great Lakes and drags its trailing cold front through our region. As the front clears the region Sunday afternoon, we will see temperatures begin to fall from highs near the middle 50s in cold advection. Some decrease in the rain chances is possible Sunday afternoon after FROPA. Temperatures drop quickly after midnight Sunday night as rain mixes with and then transitions to snow. With warm ground temperatures and prior rainfall Sunday, only minor accumulations (a few tenths of an inch) are expected by sunrise on Monday, mainly on grass and elevated surfaces. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Much colder with snow showers Monday into Tuesday - Accumulation possible mainly north of I-80 and in the ridges - Unsettled Wednesday and Thursday with occasional rain/snow chances mainly north of Pittsburgh ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensembles continue to point towards the longwave trough digging across the eastern CONUS on Monday. There remain some differences in the upper patterns between the GEFS and the Euro that would mean different durations of NW flow and thus differing snow accumulations through Tuesday. Despite these differences, the picture remains the same that NW flow will bring scattered to numerous snow showers across portions of the OH Valley. 850mb temperatures are expected to drop to between -8 to -10 deg C by Monday, while Lake Erie temperatures hover around +12 to +14 deg C. Lake and terrain enhancement will be likely Monday into portions of Monday night and possibly early Tuesday before flow backs to the W and the most efficient lake and terrain enhancement is turned north of the region. Mesoscale features (such as a reinforcing surface trough) will greatly affect SFC to 850mb flow and thus the positioning, duration and intensity of any heavier focused lake bands remains low confidence at this time. Despite this, models continue to hint at the likelihood of one or several lake bands yielding enhanced snowfall near and south of Lake Erie. NBM probabilities continue to ebb and flow but currently sit between 40- 50% for advisory level snow north of I-80. These probabilities have remained rather steady for the PA and WV ridges however where probabilities remain between 50-60%. We will continue to monitor the evolution of this system and pattern over the coming forecast periods. The trough is expected to begin to shift east of the area on Tuesday, as boundary layer flow backs to the SW and snow chances decrease through the day. Broad upper troughing is then expected to persist across areas from the Upper Midwest into New England. Occasional rain/snow chances will be possible, mainly north of PIT, as individual shortwaves rotate through the trough. Temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below average Monday and Tuesday, before moderating some by mid week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers are tapering off from west to east as low pressure pulls further northeast into Canada and as the best forcing for ascent departs. A mix of MVFR/IFR flight conditions currently exists at area terminals, along with some lingering 15 to 25 knot wind gusts. It is expected that most terminals will achieve at least a brief period of VFR conditions overnight and/or into Saturday morning as clearing over western Ohio advances into the region. This will be accompanied by what should be a dry surface frontal passage. Increasing subsidence across eastern Ohio, along with slackening wind and a moist surface, should support some areas of fog. ZZV has potential to experience IFR/LIFR visibility for a time between 08Z and 14Z. It is uncertain how far east this fog potential will reach, and will depend on the interaction of clearing, subsidence, and diminishing wind noted above. There is some potential for at least MVFR restriction at PIT and HLG, but confidence was too low to mention fog at all for other area terminals. A secondary frontal boundary approaches and likely stalls in the vicinity of the I-80 corridor Saturday morning. This may bring an afternoon shower or two to FKL, handled via PROB30. Ceilings are likely to redevelop across portions of the region as well, with MVFR levels possibly reaching as far south as PIT/AGC, but are higher confidence at FKL/DUJ. VFR is expected to be maintained at terminals near/south of I-70. Outlook... The front gets a push from an approaching shortwave Saturday night into Sunday, bringing another round of rain, gusty wind, and restrictions. These restrictions are forecast to continue into early next week (along with the potential for our first wintry precipitation of the season) as a series of additional weather systems are expected to impact the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WM/Frazier NEAR TERM...Frazier SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...WM/AK AVIATION...CL |