LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 64.4 F / 18 C Dew Point 62.6 F / 17 C Humidity 94% Wind Speed 6.9 Wind Direction SSE 150 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions few at 900 feet broken at 11000 feet Current Weather Light Rain Barometer 30.01 Inches Issued At 06/16/2025 23:56 $$ |
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FXUS61 KPBZ 042249 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 649 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather through the weekend with temperatures rising to above normal through Sunday. An unsettled pattern takes hold next week with daily rain chances and near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mostly clear tonight, with warmer overnight lows as compared to this morning. --------------------------------------------------------------- The Upper Ohio Valley sits on the eastern side of an amplifying Midwest ridge this evening. Earlier ACARS soundings showed sufficient moisture for scattered cumulus below mid-level capping, and much of those clouds have mixed out during the afternoon, and these will disappear by this evening, leading to mostly clear skies. Also, can still see a thin band of Canadian wildfire smoke settling south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Still expect upstream cirrus to float into our region tonight, some of it from convection over southern Lower Michigan. Some modest warm advection will help bump low temperatures up a few degrees as compared to this morning. Any patchy valley fog is likely to remain east of Pittsburgh, where cooler temperatures (upper 50s/lower 60s) occur over the warm rivers. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mostly dry weekend save a rogue shower north of I-80 Saturday - Increasing temperatures through Sunday ---------------------------------------------------------------- The ridge continues to build into the weekend as surface high pressure meanders off the East Coast. This will allow for some southerly return flow to ensue with warm advection underneath the building ridge. 850 mb temps sneak up to 18-20C on Saturday allowing for a 70-80%+ probability of MaxTs reaching 90F from roughly US-422 and south. A bit more of the southerly flow will push dew points up to the mid to upper 60s, so it will be a bit more humid with heat indices in the low to mid 90s. Also can't rule out a shower or storm scraping the northern part of our CWA aided by the lake breeze, but it may be tough for any updrafts to punch through the layer of subsidence around 700 mb depicted in HREF soundings. Further warming ensues on Sunday as the flow picks up a bit more out of the south and allows for stronger warm, moist advection. The ridge will start to break down in response to an approaching trough from the Great Lakes. The stronger flow should mitigate a lake breeze and keep the day dry across the board but it will be hot with heat indices up to the mid to upper 90s. Heat Advisory criteria appears less likely to be reach at this point especially with generally good confidence in the pattern and cloud coverage. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and storms return Monday - Unsettled pattern with daily rain chances for most of the week - Temperatures dip back to right around normal ------------------------------------------------------------------- Along with the aforementioned trough will be a weak cold front diving out of the Great Lakes on Monday as low pressure tracks well to our north. The continued deep layer southerly flow ahead of the boundary will increase moisture with PWAT values increasing near 1.5" locally as the higher values remain off to our east coincident with the strongest flow. Some showers may be ongoing in the morning with weak convergence, but expect that reinvigoration would occur along the boundary with daytime heating. Weak support and flow aloft may be a hindering factor in deep convective development with very weak deep layer shear in place (<20% for >20 knots) but probability for >1000 J/kg SBCAPE is up to 70-80%. The boundary is likely to be slow moving with the deep layer flow oriented parallel, so upscale growth and training of heavy rain could be a concern given the PWAT values and slow movement of the forcing. Probability for >1" of rain is very low in the ensembles currently, but wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of an uptick when the CAMs become available. Rain chances will continue into the middle part of next week as the aforementioned boundary stalls just off to our south. How far south is a bit uncertain with some ensembles suggesting deeper upper troughing and pushing it farther south, but either way should see rain chances diminish late Monday before picking back up both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening with diurnal trends. Another developing low toward the latter half of the week looks to bring the boundary back up north and continue the unsettled pattern into next weekend. Temperatures are favored to be right around normal with the cloud coverage and rain around the area. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR for most ports through the period with medium confidence in VFR for DUJ/FKL. The period will mostly be defined by high cirrus overnight and calm to light southeast winds, replaced by light southwest winds for the daytime hours Saturday with mixing generating a few fair weather cu. There is a chance of patchy valley fog overnight, though this remains low probability to impact any given port. There is a 10% to 20% chance of showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder for DUJ/FKL in the afternoon/evening hours Saturday as a weak wave moves in from the north, with some initiation possible off of the lake-shore, but this remains low confidence. If coverage does materialize, it is expected to be isolated at best with dry air aloft. Outlook... General VFR is forecast through Sunday with the next chance of any restrictions or thunder mentions on Monday afternoon/evening with the next disturbance. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLB NEAR TERM...MLB/CL SHORT TERM...MLB LONG TERM...MLB AVIATION...Milcarek |