LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 71.6 F / 22 C Heat Index 76.4 F / 25 C Dew Point 55.4 F / 13 C Humidity 57% Wind Speed 3.5 Wind Direction Variable Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions few at 7000 feet Current Weather Barometer 30.17 Inches Issued At 09/16/2025 19:56 $$ |
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FXUS61 KPBZ 170016 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 816 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Other than a shower or two in the higher elevations tonight, high pressure will keep dry weather and above-normal temperatures dominant into the upcoming weekend. Low rain chances make a return to the forecast early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - An isolated light rain shower or two through tonight in the higher elevations, otherwise dry - Continued above-normal temperatures --------------------------------------------------------------- Low pressure continues to spin at the surface just off of the North Carolina coast, with a closed 500mb low positioned closer to Charlotte. Easterly flow to the north of the low continues to spin high clouds into our region, with some diurnal cumulus also noted. This easterly flow, a downsloping influence to the west of the ridges, will help to keep the vast majority of the region dry through tonight. The Laurels and the northern West Virginia ridges, especially east-facing slopes, still have a small chance of seeing a light rain shower or two from this afternoon through tonight. This is due to the being on the outer edge of deeper moisture (80-90% chance of 1 inch or higher precipitable water per the HREF), as well as upsloping influence. In any case, precip totals will be quite light. Only the highest slopes of eastern Tucker County have a better than 20 percent chance of a wetting rain (0.10" or more). So, this rain will provide little to no help with the developing drought conditions. With the slight decrease in 500mb heights/850mb temperatures as compared to yesterday, afternoon high temperatures should end up 2 or 3 degrees cooler than Monday. The clouds tonight should keep overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s, or near to a touch above normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - The lack of widespread rain continues - Still warmer than normal -------------------------------------------------------------- The coastal low is expected to degrade to an open wave as it meanders northward into New England by Thursday. It would then kick out into the Atlantic by Friday morning in response to building mid-level ridging over the Lower Ohio Valley. A shower or two may linger in the Laurels/WV ridges Wednesday morning, but any minimal rain chances will end during the afternoon as the system departs. Clouds will also pull east with time, leading to mostly clear skies through Thursday night, save for some scattered diurnal cumulus Thursday afternoon. Due to the higher cloud coverage, high temperatures Wednesday should be a bit closer to climatology east of Pittsburgh, perhaps within a few degrees of normal, while eastern Ohio temperatures climb to 8-10 degrees above normal once again. There is some fog potential Thursday morning with light wind, higher dewpoints, and model soundings showing a developing near- surface inversion. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Still dry and warmer than normal through the weekend - Minimal rain chances return early next week - Temperatures slightly cooler but still above normal Monday and Tuesday ------------------------------------------------------------------ The dry pattern continues through Saturday with high confidence, as the upper ridge axis crosses the Upper Ohio Valley. The passage of a weak frontal boundary on Friday will do nothing to dent the developing drought. With the continued rise in 500mb heights, temperatures around 10 degrees above normal are still expected. Ensembles are continuing a trend of slowing down the approach of the next upstream trough. Differences remain, but it appears that the axis of the disturbance remains back over the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley during the Sunday/Monday period. This leads to a downward trend in the already low PoPs that were in place, with only a sub-20 percent chances mentioned north and west of Pittsburgh through the Monday daylight hours. By Tuesday, uncertainty in the depth and position of the shortwave continues to grow, but clusters still show decent confidence in only a minor eastward displacement by Tuesday, resulting in only slightly better rain chances. For now, there remains little potential for a much-needed widespread wetting rainfall. This uncertainty extends to the temperature forecast a bit as well. A faster/slightly deeper trough could lead to temperatures closer to climatology, while the slower solutions would continue the warmer pattern. This latter solution seems more likely given the ongoing dryness and better ensemble support, so temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees above normal seem reasonable for the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence VFR continues through the TAF period as high pressure remains across the region. Winds will remain light and variable, though generally easterly. Mid/High level scattered cloud coverage will continue to filter in, associated with a coastal surface low near SE Virginia. Cloud coverage should mitigate most fog potential overnight. .OUTLOOK.... High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern, promoting VFR and light easterly wind. Clear sky nights may result in patchy river fog during the pre-dawn hours. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CL NEAR TERM...CL SHORT TERM...CL LONG TERM...CL AVIATION...88 |