LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 60.8 F / 16 C Dew Point 57.2 F / 14 C Humidity 88% Wind Speed 10.4 Wind Direction SW 230 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions broken at 1000 feet overcast at 1700 feet Current Weather Barometer 29.88 Inches Issued At 05/02/2025 08:56 $$ |
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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 021131 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 731 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and storms remain today and continue through the weekend and into next week. Temperatures will drop to near normal over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly dry this morning with shower/storm chances increasing over the afternoon. - Slight to Marginal SPC outlooks in place today. ------------------------------------------------ Relatively warm start to the day with well above normal temperatures currently being observed across the region. Upper troughing over the west will maintain warm advection in southwesterly flow today, which will keep high temperatures near 5-10 degrees above average. Moisture advection will be on the rise ahead of a sfc low approaching from the west, eventually reaching the forecast area tonight. Shower/storm coverage will increase later in the afternoon ahead of low and associated upper trough, and convective temperatures in the low 70s are exceeded. SPC has bumped up the previous Marginal Risk to a Slight risk south and west of PGH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Continued shower/storm chances through Saturday - Temperatures fall to below average Saturday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shower chances continue tonight as the mentioned trough continues to transition towards the region. Over the course of the day the upper low is progged to deepen and close off, or even completely cut off during the afternoon. This will maintain unsettled conditions and result in slightly cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Increasing uncertainty in the weather pattern next week ------------------------------------------------------------------- High levels of uncertainty still exist in the long range as clustered ensembles show varying possibilities on how the upper pattern evolves. Consensus across all the clusters shows high confidence in a western CONUS trough and a central CONUS ridge. Solutions diverge on how the departing longwave trough phases or doesn't with a shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Clustered ensembles are split almost evenly on Sunday on if this shortwave becomes cut off from the longwave flow. By Monday >70% of the clustered ensembles show some level of a cut-off low near the OH Valley. Regardless of which outcome occurs, the pattern will relatively stationary through Monday. What does this actually mean for the Pittsburgh area? (1) Cut-off low pressure somewhere in the OH Valley seems like the favored outcome (low confidence). The exact placement of this feature will affect us greatly but this scenario would favor cooler and more active weather with daily shower chances. (2) If cut-off low pressure cannot develop or is pushed further east/west then we could find ourselves under the influence of some level of ridging which would favor drier conditions and warmer weather. At this time this seems like the less favored scenario. The forecast through Monday will likely change since we will run with the NBM mean. The actual outcome will likely be warmer/cooler and wetter/drier than the mean based on the eventual trough axis positioning. After Monday, the upper level trough is expected to slowly move northeastward over New England. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR cigs are expected to continue this morning with low level moisture in place after the recent rainfall. Cigs should return to VFR levels from mid morning through early afternoon with mixing. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are reached, and as a cold front approaches from the NW. Maintained prob30 mention in the TAFs for these storms, with a peak time of potential occurrence from 19Z-00Z. The front is expected to stall across the region tonight as a wave of low pressure moves NE across the Ohio Valley region. Additional showers are expected tonight with the approach of this low. Outlook... Rain and restrictions are likely Saturday as low pressure tracks across the region. A few thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon. Periodic restrictions and scattered showers (and afternoon thunderstorms) are then expected through Tuesday as an upper low persists across the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...88 SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM...88/Lupo/AK AVIATION...WM/Cermak |