LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 71.6 F / 22 C Heat Index 76.4 F / 25 C Dew Point 55.4 F / 13 C Humidity 57% Wind Speed 3.5 Wind Direction Variable Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions few at 7000 feet Current Weather Barometer 30.17 Inches Issued At 09/16/2025 19:56 $$ |
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ACUS02 KWNS 161723 SWODY2 SPC AC 161721 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 $$ |