LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 44.6 F / 7 C Wind Chill 41 F / 6 C Dew Point 44.6 F / 7 C Humidity 100% Wind Speed 5.8 Wind Direction WNW 290 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions overcast at 900 feet Current Weather Light Rain Barometer 30.07 Inches Issued At 05/24/2025 06:56 $$ |
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ACUS02 KWNS 240559 SWODY2 SPC AC 240558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A wind damage and hail threat is also expected from parts of the Ozarks into the Southeast. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower To Mid Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central Plains on Sunday, as southwest flow becomes established in the wake of the ridge. At the surface, a front is forecast to be located across central Oklahoma eastward into the Ozarks early in the day. Near the front, some model forecasts show a linear convective system at the start of the period in the western Ozarks. This convection could become organized as surface temperatures warm across a moist and unstable airmass from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind-damage and hail would be the primary threats. Further west, the front in Oklahoma is forecast to extend southwestward to a low in west Texas. Along and to the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Across the moist airmas, the NAM and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement, suggesting MLCAPE will peak in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range from northwest Texas to central Oklahoma. Although large-scale ascent will likely remain weak, low-level convergence along the front should result in convective initiation during the late afternoon. Near the forecast instability maximum, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across central and southwest Oklahoma have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 8.5 to 9 C/Km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant storms. An isolated tornado threat could also develop, as low-level flow increases during the evening. Supercells will also be capable of damaging wind gusts. Due to the relatively weak large-ascent, thunderstorm coverage could remain somewhat widely spaced across parts of southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Further northwest into parts of the southern and central High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are expected to move off the higher terrain during the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, steep mid-level lapse rates could be sufficient for marginally severe hail. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur. ..Broyles.. 05/24/2025 $$ |