LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 51.8 F / 11 C Dew Point 39.2 F / 4 C Humidity 62% Wind Speed 3.5 Wind Direction S 170 Degrees Visibility 10 Miles Sky Conditions Clear Current Weather Barometer 29.99 Inches Issued At 10/18/2025 00:56 $$ |
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ACUS02 KWNS 171733 SWODY2 SPC AC 171731 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move rapidly eastward across TX and OK during the day, as a stronger wave digs into the central Plains. These features will merge Saturday night as the upper trough crosses the MS River, with a large area of height falls and strengthening winds aloft expanding across the OH/TN Valley into Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will stretch roughly from the upper MS Valley southwestward into northern OK at 18Z, with a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints already in place from eastern TX into OK and possibly southeast KS/southwest MO. After 00Z, the cold front will accelerate eastward, stretching from western OH into northern MS/LA and into southeast TX. The combination of increasing large-scale ascent as well as a sufficiently unstable air mass with strong deep-layer shear should result in widely scattered strong to severe storms beginning around midday and persisting into the overnight hours. ...Eastern OK and TX into the Middle to Lower MS Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Saturday with potential for early day rain and thunderstorms, and uncertainties regarding destabilization. In general, hail is possible over western areas, with an increasing damaging wind threat farther east late. Storms are likely to develop by midday ahead of the southern wave with lift overspreading the moist plume. Cell producing hail appear likely from northeast TX and OK, and also from northern AR into southern MO within the moist plume. A few supercells will be possible with 40+ kt deep-layer shear and stronger low-level shear. Later in the afternoon and evening as the cold front overtakes the air mass, an elongated area of storms with wind damage potential is forecast, and this will push across the lower MS Valley. A tornado or two may occur from LA into AR, though instability will become the limiting factor farther east overnight. ..OH Valley/Midwest... As the upper trough and surface low deepen overnight, wind fields and shear profiles will increase ahead of the cold front. A forced line of convection is possible across this region as dewpoints remain in the lower 60s, and 850 mb winds increase to over 50 kt. This could result in nocturnal damaging gusts or a QLCS tornado over southeast IL, IN, northern KY and perhaps far western OH prior to 12Z. ..Jewell.. 10/17/2025 $$ |