LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT Franklin, Venango Regional Airport Temperature 0 F / 0 C Wind Chill 0 F / 0 C Dew Point 0 F / 0 C Humidity 0% Wind Speed 9.2 Wind Direction SW 220 Degrees Visibility 8 Miles Sky Conditions overcast at 400 feet Current Weather Barometer 29.89 Inches Issued At 05/18/2024 00:56 $$ |
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Area Forecast Discussion
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   ACUS03 KWNS 170726 SWODY3 SPC AC 170725 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of central Kansas into central/eastern Nebraska on Sunday. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards, though a tornado or two also will be possible. ...Central Plains vicinity... A somewhat low-amplitude upper shortwave trough will develop east/northeast from the central/southern Rockies into the central Plains through Sunday evening. Moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the OK/TX Panhandles into KS/NE ahead of the trough. At the surface, a dryline will extend southward from west-central NE to near the OK/TX border by mid/late afternoon. To the east of the dryline, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be common. Strong heating and steep to very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Some uncertainty exists regarding the degree of capping across the region. This is mainly due to warm temps in the 850-700 mb layer. However, some guidance depicts early convection ongoing across NE Sunday morning. If this occurs, this could impact the airmass and subsequent convective development during the late afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, southeasterly low-level flow will provide convergence along the dryline as large-scale ascent increases by 21-00z. Supercell wind profiles and an otherwise favorable low- and upper-level pattern should support isolated to scattered severe convection. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat dry midlevels will support a risk for damaging gusts, while very steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs suggest large-hail potential exists. The tornado risk is somewhat more uncertain given marginal low-level moisture. A more conditional risk will extend southward along the TX/OK border near the dryline. Better low-level moisture will exist further south, but forcing for ascent will be weaker. If a storm can develop, severe gusts and large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/17/2024 $$ |